Libya; Fly or No Fly?

     When protest in Tunisia and Egypt managed to topple autocratic regimes that had been in power for decades, their was much hand-wringing in the West about the influence of radical political Islam. Now that these uprisings have spread to Libya, their is much hand-wringing in the West that the protesters might actually fail.
     The protesters had taken over the eastern half of Libya. In fact, the protest have devolved into all out civil war. Today, loyalist of Ghaddafi routed rebels in the strategic oil port of Ras Lanuf. Also, France became the first country to recognize the rebel government, based in Benghazi.
     However, the continued push of government forces to the east means that that government of the rebels may not last much longer. This has led Western governments to discuss a "no-fly zone."
     No-Fly Zones have an attractive history. First, one was used in the civil war in Yugoslavia. The airspace over Serbia was closed to all but NATO aircraft. Air defenses were removed, and eventually strategic targets, such as bridges, were destroyed as well. In Iraq, northern air space, in the Kurdish area, was controlled to stop Hussien from bombing civilians.
     The question remains, what would happen in Libya if Western powers controlled the skies in order to level the playing field. It depends on who is seen as being responsible for the no-fly zone. France and the United Kingdom are on board. China and Russia are against the idea. Positive signs coming from the Arab League suggest that they could be on board. The United States is still debating the idea. Ghaddafi has already tried to paint the rebels as being backed, alternatively, by the United States and Al-Qeada. If the uprising fails, the stain of Western influence on grassroots movements may deter Arab rebels for a generation to come. If it succeeds, the new government may never overcome the suspicion of being a Western puppet.